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2012 Predictions from the Center Mid-Field (CMF)
From CMF Associates in Philadelphia:
November 3, 2011
2012 Predictions from the Center Mid-Field (CMF)
Economic Predictions
- U.S. unemployment ↓from 9.0% to 8.7%
- U.S. GDP ↑ from 1.4% to 2.4%
- Fed funds rate will remain unchanged at 0.1%
- Ten-Year Treasury Note rate will ↑from 3.0% to 3.8%
- Savings Rate ↓ from 5.2% to 4.5%
- Budget deficit ↓from $1,299B to $999B
- Oil prices ↓ from $101.23 to $85 a barrel
- USD/EUR exchange rate ↓ $1.41 to $1.30
- USD/GBP exchange rate ↓ $1.61 to $1.64
- Renminbi/USD ↑ 6.50 RMB to 7.00 RMB
- Europe has zero economic growth
Socio-Political Predictions
- Iraq provides pleasant surprises, Afghanistan unpleasant ones
- Shortage of skilled workers in many industries impacts public debate on worker training
- Tight election race between Romney and Obama is decided by PA, OH and MI (Rust Belt Rising)
- In 2012, Democratic ticket is adjusted – Clinton is VP and Biden moves to Secretary of State
- Syria’s Assad regime fails
Industry Predictions
- PE M&A deal volume up 15%
- Industrial production up 3.3%
- US retail comp sales up 3.0%
- Construction up 3.1%
- US natural gas production, which increased 6.7% in 2011, will continue to grow in 2012, but slower – a 2.8% increase over 2011
- Banks loosen underwriting standards and begin growing the loan book meaningfully
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